Prepared to see: Where the pathway of violence can lead

This is a five-part series covering a six-month long investigation on gun safety and awareness, inspired by the mass shooting event in Winder, Ga. at the beginning of the school year. Today is part three, which provides key information from the Active Shooter Response Training class held for faculty and staff during the 2024-2025 school year on how to recognize suspicious behavior. It explains the pathway to violence and the urgency to report it.

Students are encouraged to contact the CARE team or AU police with any concerns about another student. (photo by CM Wahl)

By CM Wahl | Managing editor

“True prevention is not waiting for bad things to happen; it's preventing things from happening in the first place,” said Don McPherson, former professional football player and violence prevention advocate.

McPherson’s words ring true in an era where violence occurs in any circumstance, at any location, with little to no warning. If prevention is key, people must learn how to recognize signs of suspicious behavior.

Many agree that some of the worst violent events are those aimed at taking the lives of innocent people in a mass shooting. Schools all over the country incorporate safety trainings and security measures in hopes to eliminate or deter potential shooters. Augusta University is no exception.

Eric “Harry” Smith, a captain with the AU police department, led an Active Shooter Response Training class for faculty and staff during the 2024-2025 school year. Smith provided vital information that included how to identify potential warning signs.

Based on active shooter statistics, Smith stated that on average, there is one victim every 15 seconds so “time is of the essence” when it comes to response, whether by law enforcement or the civilian population.

“These events from the first trigger pull to the end,” said Smith, “where the shooter is neutralized in one way or another, where the shooting stops… are completed in less than five minutes.”

According to Smith, recent FBI statistics reflect a decrease in mass shooting events in the last year. He said that if more proactive measures are taken and people are equipped with proactive information, the number of violent incidents in facilities like schools, hospitals, government buildings and houses of worship will remain low.

Although many believe the typical profile for an active shooter may be a specific race, belief system or socioeconomic status, Smith explained that “an active shooter could be anyone.”

While it is often assumed that shooters are mentally ill, statistics show only about one-third of active shooters have had a diagnosed, treated mental illness, while another third have indicators but were never diagnosed or treated, and the final third have no indications of past mental illness or treatment and would generally be considered a “normal person.”

It's unlikely that potential shooters will provide direct threats specifically saying when and where they will attack. There is, however, a “pathway to violence” that every active shooter has gone through, and learning the signs can help stop a violent event before it happens.

“By being aware of what this ‘pathway to violence’ is,” said Smith, “we might be able to see some indicators along the way and provide that person an off-ramp to that pathway to violence.”

The first step on the pathway is a “grievance.” Psychologically, most people do not like taking responsibility for their actions. For many, their initial response is to look for external reasons when things go wrong in their lives. Most people will get over these grievances and move on productively with their lives without resorting to violence.

Smith said the active shooter, however, will take it to the next step of “ideation,” when they think about how they can take back that power or control over their own destiny. They start to entertain dark thoughts that could help “solve” the grievance in their mind. If these people do not immediately dismiss these negative ideas, they may move on to the next step of “research and planning.”

Smith explained that in this step, shooters look at past incidents of mass violence to find out what went right and what went wrong. They research methods of attack, surveil maps for potential locations and find out what’s needed for them to carry out their plan.

If they're still serious about moving forward after that, they will go into “preparation mode,” which includes site visits, physical surveillance, attempts to probe or thwart security measures, and sometimes, conduct “dry runs” to gauge police response times.

“Once they get through that process,” said Smith, “then we move on to ‘the breach.’ And the breach is essentially the point where [the shooter thinks], ‘I've got my plan. I've done my research. I've gathered my supplies, my weapons, my ammunition, my modes of transportation. I know what it is I want to do.’”

Smith called this breach “the psychological point of no return,” meaning the shooter is out the door, heading to the location and ready to attack. While some people have said mass shooters “just snapped,” this series of steps is methodical and takes place over a short or long period of time.

The good news, according to Smith, is that 81 percent of active shooters tell someone about their plans and 60 percent of them tell multiple people.

“What they end up doing,” he said, “is having some ‘psychological leakage’… where they do or say things that kind of communicate or transmit their intentions.”

Smith said that looking for those psychological catches and behavior statements, especially in an online posting, is where other people have the opportunity to “see something, say something.” Some may not want to believe that someone they know or love is capable of such actions, but Smith advised people not to be afraid to recognize clues that something is “desperately wrong.”

In the book, “The Gift of Fear: Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence,” author Gavin de Becker wrote, “Only human beings can look directly at something, have all the information they need to make an accurate prediction, perhaps even momentarily make the accurate prediction, and then say that it isn't so.”

Blue emergency phones are placed throughout both AU campuses and provide direct contact to AU police. (photo by CM Wahl)

Smith stated it is better to report something and it turn out to be nothing, then not report it and it turn out to be something that could’ve been prevented.

AU Police can be contacted at 706-721-2911, via the blue emergency phones on campus or through their app, Rave Guardian, which is available for free to all current AU students.

For the next article in this series, see “Prepared to talk: Why gun violence awareness matters.”

 Contact CM Wahl at cwahl@augusta.edu.